Jamie Dimon’s annual letter to shareholders, released April 8th, mentioned the word “inflation” 21 times. That would’ve been unimaginable five years ago. Last fall he said in an interview that interest rates could hit 7 percent. In his annual letter he told shareholders that his bank is preparing for a rate environment of anywhere from […]
JP Morgan CEO warns of 8 percent rates, here’s how investors can profit Read More »
The US, along with most countries in the world, is currently in a rate hiking cycle that began in March 2022. Since the Fed began its rate hiking campaign, the response of the stock market has been surprising to many, myself included. All financial assets are valued in virtually the same way: by calculating the
How does the stock market “normally” respond to rate hikes? Read More »
A summary of the indicators in this research letter, their ratings, and the rating scheme: The bank credit impulse went down by a marginal 4 points during the week ending April 10th. The reading of 0.31 is well within a range that is historically correlated with positive economic growth. This is an index designed to
Credit is flowing freely, risk perceptions are low Read More »
While the economists talk recovery, the Chinese are “hoarding dollars” Story: Is China’s economy on the path to recovery? There’s been a lot of reporting on positive economic data releases from the country, but the financial situation still looks quite bad. Chinese businesses are “hoarding dollars because they expect their own currency to weaken”, according
Under the Radar: Chinese hoarding dollars Read More »
The financial derivatives mafia descends upon India Story: You may remember a scene in “The Big Short” where the two “garage band hedge fund” guys – whose names are escaping me – have to go to a GMO-phobic Brad Pitt for assistance in their bet against the housing market. They ask him for permission to
Under the Radar: India and ISDA Read More »
Equities US Stocks As of April 19th, 2024, the Dow Jones has been in drawdown for 3 weeks, finishing 4.6 percent off its last All Time High of 39,807. Active traders are taking money off the table as the major US indices – the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ – break below key moving averages. The
State of Money and Markets – Risk Assets Pull Back Read More »
Introduction As the dollar enters its second century of dominance as the World Reserve Currency, the sustainability of that dominance is being called into question for the first time in many years. A reserve currency is a medium of exchange (money) that is used for trade, credit, and investment, outside its country of origin. The
The Myth of the Petrodollar System Read More »
