A summary of the indicators in this research letter, their ratings, and the rating scheme: The bank credit impulse went down by a marginal 4 points during the week ending April 10th. The reading of 0.31 is well within a range that is historically correlated with positive economic growth. This is an index designed to […]
Credit is flowing freely, risk perceptions are low Read More »
While the economists talk recovery, the Chinese are “hoarding dollars” Story: Is China’s economy on the path to recovery? There’s been a lot of reporting on positive economic data releases from the country, but the financial situation still looks quite bad. Chinese businesses are “hoarding dollars because they expect their own currency to weaken”, according
Under the Radar: Chinese hoarding dollars Read More »
The financial derivatives mafia descends upon India Story: You may remember a scene in “The Big Short” where the two “garage band hedge fund” guys – whose names are escaping me – have to go to a GMO-phobic Brad Pitt for assistance in their bet against the housing market. They ask him for permission to
Under the Radar: India and ISDA Read More »
Equities US Stocks As of April 19th, 2024, the Dow Jones has been in drawdown for 3 weeks, finishing 4.6 percent off its last All Time High of 39,807. Active traders are taking money off the table as the major US indices – the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ – break below key moving averages. The
State of Money and Markets – Risk Assets Pull Back Read More »
Introduction As the dollar enters its second century of dominance as the World Reserve Currency, the sustainability of that dominance is being called into question for the first time in many years. A reserve currency is a medium of exchange (money) that is used for trade, credit, and investment, outside its country of origin. The
The Myth of the Petrodollar System Read More »
Summary Last month I compared the Federal Reserve Board’s outlook for rates against what the Futures Markets have “priced in”. I also covered global systemic risks along with changes particular to the US Economy: My outlook under a no-recession scenario was for the Fed Funds rate to reach 4 percent by the end of 2025,
Interest Rates and Economic Outlook – December 2023 Read More »
In 2021 the cracks in China’s real estate sector were exposed when its biggest developer – Evergrande Group – started having trouble making interest payments on its debt. The company’s bonds were never in amazing shape. Junk debt, to be sure. They traded around 83 cents on the dollar in May of 2021, but by
Why China’s Crisis is like the panic of 1907 Read More »
