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Summary  Last month I compared the Federal Reserve Board’s outlook for rates against what the Futures Markets have “priced in”. I also covered global systemic risks along with changes particular to the US Economy: My outlook under a no-recession scenario was for the Fed Funds rate to reach 4 percent by the end of 2025, […]

Indicators  Interest rates are like all other economic factors in that they are notoriously difficult to forecast. The path of interest rates is dependent on many variables. The most important are the rate of inflation, the unemployment rate, and the health of the short-term money market. Because interest rates are not objectively set by markets,